Prediction of near-term climate change impacts on UK wheat quality and the potential for adaptation through plant breeding

Wheat is a major crop worldwide, mainly cultivated for human consumption and animal feed. Grain quality is paramount in determining its value and downstream use. While we know that climate change threatens global crop yields, a better understanding of impacts on wheat end-use quality is also critical. Combining quantitative genetics with climate model outputs, we investigated UK-wide trends in genotypic adaptation for wheat quality traits. In our approach, we augmented genomic prediction models with environmental characterisation of field trials to predict trait values and climate effects in historical field trial data between 2001 and 2020. Addition of environmental covariates, such as temperature and rainfall, successfully enabled prediction of genotype by environment interactions (G × E), and increased prediction accuracy of most traits for new genotypes in new year cross validation. We then extended predictions from these models to much larger numbers of simulated environments using climate scenarios projected under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 for 2050–2069. We found geographically varying climate change impacts on wheat quality due to contrasting associations between specific weather covariables and quality traits across the UK. Notably, negative impacts on quality traits were predicted in the East of the UK due to increased summer temperatures while the climate in the North and South-west may become more favourable with increased summer temperatures. Furthermore, by projecting 167,040 simulated future genotype–environment combinations, we found only limited potential for breeding to exploit predictable G × E to mitigate year-to-year environmental variability for most traits except Hagberg falling number. This suggests low adaptability of current UK wheat germplasm across future UK climates. More generally, approaches demonstrated here will be critical to enable adaptation of global crops to near-term climate change.     

Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high-latitude net ecosystem carbon budget

Arctic-boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic-boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003–2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R_eco), net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE; R_eco − GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH₄) emissions for the Arctic-boreal zone using a satellite data-driven process-model for northern ecosystems (TCFM-Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM-Arctic to obtain daily 1-km² flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan-Arctic-boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of −850 Tg CO₂-C year⁻¹. Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH₄ emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH₄) were estimated at 35 Tg CH₄-C year⁻¹. Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high-latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site-to-regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change.     

A tooth crown morphology framework for interpreting the diversity of primate dentitions

Variation in tooth crown morphology plays a crucial role in species diagnoses, phylogenetic inference, and the reconstruction of the evolutionary history of the primate clade. While a growing number of studies have identified developmental mechanisms linked to tooth size and cusp patterning in mammalian crown morphology, it is unclear (1) to what degree these are applicable across primates and (2) which additional developmental mechanisms should be recognized as playing important roles in odontogenesis. From detailed observations of lower molar enamel–dentine junction morphology from taxa representing the major primate clades, we outline multiple phylogenetic and developmental components responsible for crown patterning, and formulate a tooth crown morphology framework for the holistic interpretation of primate crown morphology. We suggest that adopting this framework is crucial for the characterization of tooth morphology in studies of dental development, discrete trait analysis, and systematics.     

Response of shoaling fish to the threat of aerial predation

Synopsis Many species of shoaling fish are preyed upon by aerial predators. However, to date there has been no analysis of the evasive response of a group of shoaling fish to an aerial threat or attack. The response of a shoal of fish encompasses a suite of behaviors starting with a startle response. Shoals of golden shiner, Notemigonus crysoleucas, responded to the threat of aerial predation from a kingfisher model with a startle response, an increase in shoal depth, an increase in polarity, swimming in the opposite direction under the model predator, shoal compression along the depth axis, and shoal expansion on the plane perpendicular to the depth axis. It was hypothesized that shoal compression along the depth axis serves to increase predator confusion by placing more fish in the predator's visual field. This compression was termed the ‘plane of confusion’.     

The 141-year period for Dr. Beal's seed viability experiment: A hybrid surprise

Premise

In 1879, Dr. William Beal buried 20 glass bottles filled with seeds and sand at a single site at Michigan State University. The goal of the experiment was to understand seed longevity in the soil, a topic of general importance in ecology, restoration, conservation, and agriculture, by periodically assaying germinability of these seeds over 100 years. The interval between germination assays has been extended and the experiment will now end after 221 years, in 2100.

Methods

We dug up the 16th bottle in April 2021 and attempted to germinate the 141-year-old seeds it contained. We grew germinants to maturity and identified these to species by vegetative and reproductive phenotypes. For the first time in the history of this experiment, genomic DNA was sequenced to confirm species identities.

Results

Twenty seeds germinated over the 244-day assay. Eight germinated in the first 11 days. All 20 belonged to the Verbascum genus: Nineteen were V. blattaria according to phenotype and ITS2 genotype; and one had a hybrid V. blattaria × V. thapsus phenotype and ITS2 genotype. In total, 20/50 (40%) of the original Verbascum seeds in the bottle germinated in year 141.

Conclusions

While most species in the Beal experiment lost all seed viability in the first 60 years, a high percentage of Verbascum seeds can still germinate after 141 years in the soil. Long-term experiments such as this one are rare and invaluable for studying seed viability in natural soil conditions.     

Mechanisms of group-hunting in vertebrates

Group-hunting is ubiquitous across animal taxa and has received considerable attention in the context of its functions. By contrast much less is known about the mechanisms by which grouping predators hunt their prey. This is primarily due to a lack of experimental manipulation alongside logistical difficulties quantifying the behaviour of multiple predators at high spatiotemporal resolution as they search, select, and capture wild prey. However, the use of new remote-sensing technologies and a broadening of the focal taxa beyond apex predators provides researchers with a great opportunity to discern accurately how multiple predators hunt together and not just whether doing so provides hunters with a per capita benefit. We incorporate many ideas from collective behaviour and locomotion throughout this review to make testable predictions for future researchers and pay particular attention to the role that computer simulation can play in a feedback loop with empirical data collection. Our review of the literature showed that the breadth of predator:prey size ratios among the taxa that can be considered to hunt as a group is very large (<10⁰ to >10²). We therefore synthesised the literature with respect to these predator:prey ratios and found that they promoted different hunting mechanisms. Additionally, these different hunting mechanisms are also related to particular stages of the hunt (search, selection, capture) and thus we structure our review in accordance with these two factors (stage of the hunt and predator:prey size ratio). We identify several novel group-hunting mechanisms which are largely untested, particularly under field conditions, and we also highlight a range of potential study organisms that are amenable to experimental testing of these mechanisms in connection with tracking technology. We believe that a combination of new hypotheses, study systems and methodological approaches should help push the field of group-hunting in new directions.     

Loss of DNA repair mechanisms in cardiac myocytes induce dilated cardiomyopathy

Cardiomyopathy is a progressive disease of the myocardium leading to impaired contractility. Genotoxic cancer therapies are known to be potent drivers of cardiomyopathy, whereas causes of spontaneous disease remain unclear. To test the hypothesis that endogenous genotoxic stress contributes to cardiomyopathy, we deleted the DNA repair gene Ercc1 specifically in striated muscle using a floxed allele of Ercc1 and mice expressing Cre under control of the muscle-specific creatinine kinase (Ckmm) promoter or depleted systemically (Ercc1^−/D mice). Ckmm-Cre^+/−;Ercc1^−/fl mice expired suddenly of heart disease by 7 months of age. As young adults, the hearts of Ckmm-Cre^+/−;Ercc1^−/fl mice were structurally and functionally normal, but by 6-months-of-age, there was significant ventricular dilation, wall thinning, interstitial fibrosis, and systolic dysfunction indicative of dilated cardiomyopathy. Cardiac tissue from the tissue-specific or systemic model showed increased apoptosis and cardiac myocytes from Ckmm-Cre^+/-;Ercc1^−/fl mice were hypersensitive to genotoxins, resulting in apoptosis. p53 levels and target gene expression, including several antioxidants, were increased in cardiac tissue from Ckmm-Cre^+/−;Ercc1^−/fl and Ercc1^−/D mice. Despite this, cardiac tissue from older mutant mice showed evidence of increased oxidative stress. Genetic or pharmacologic inhibition of p53 attenuated apoptosis and improved disease markers. Similarly, overexpression of mitochondrial-targeted catalase improved disease markers. Together, these data support the conclusion that DNA damage produced endogenously can drive cardiac disease and does so mechanistically via chronic activation of p53 and increased oxidative stress, driving cardiac myocyte apoptosis, dilated cardiomyopathy, and sudden death.     

The mouse Dlx-2 (Tes-1) gene is expressed in spatially restricted domains of the forebrain, face and limbs in midgestation mouse embryos

The pattern of RNA expression of the murine Dlx-2 (Tes-1) homeobox gene is described in embryos ranging in age from E8.5 through E11.5. Dlx-2 is a vertebrate homologue of the Drosophila Distal-less (Dll) gene. Dll expression in the Drosophila embryo is principally limited to the primordia of the brain, head and limbs. Dlx-2 is also expressed principally in the primordia of the forebrain, head and limbs. Within these regions it is expressed in spatially restricted domains. These include two discontinuous regions of the forebrain (basal telencephalon and ventral diencephalon), the branchial arches, facial ectoderm, cranial ganglia and limb ectoderm. Several mouse and human disorders have phenotypes which potentially are the result of mutations in the Dlx genes.